New England Considered ‘Overdue’ for a Hurricane Strike

It's been more than a few years since New England has taken a direct strike from a significant hurricane. As forecasters begin to make predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, experts say the region is high on a list of "overdue" locations for a direct hit from a hurricane.

Research by Michael Ferragamo, a freelance hurricane researcher and upcoming graduate of the University of Oklahoma, indicates that New England has experienced a hurricane drought over the last several decades. Miami and Tampa, Florida, are also included in Ferragamo's analysis.

"In all of these regions, populations have grown substantially since the last major impacts," AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva explained to USA TODAY. "Many residents have never experienced a hurricane and may not be familiar with evacuation zones or proper preparation, which increases the risk."

According to AccuWeather, areas from New York City through Providence, Rhode Island, are particularly susceptible to storm surge during a hurricane.

"The typical return interval is about 17 to 20 years, but the last direct hurricane landfall there was Hurricane Bob in 1991. That is more than three decades ago," he noted to USA TODAY.

To find the most horrific hurricane on record for New England, you have to go back to 1938. The unnamed storm killed as many as 682 people and struck as a Category 3 hurricane. Winds reached 115 to 120 mph. That storm moved across the area at 50 mph, with little warning, causing a catastrophic storm surge and significant wind damage across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

To put that devastation in today's terms, DaSilva and his colleagues ran a cost analysis. "If the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 hit the same region with the same storm surge, flooding, and wind impacts now, AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss would be $440 billion," he stated.

"My biggest concern for New England comes in the form of major hurricanes — the once-in-a-lifetime monsters," he further explained to USA TODAY. "Residents have absolutely no idea how bad a hurricane can be in the region, and when another one does hit, it will be catastrophic, even if it's a Category 2."