What Will New England’s Weather Be This October?

September gave the New England region above-average temperatures and about normal precipitation. What are forecasters calling for this October?

Over the past three decades, Boston has experienced six consecutive warmer Octobers, with recent years becoming increasingly dry. The variability of the jet stream this fall will lead to alternating warm and cooler days. Warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures can also amplify warm spells and mitigate cooler periods in the region.

October isn't expected to relieve the drought conditions that have extended across Massachusetts and Northern New England since early August. But that doesn't mean the area won't see any precipitation. According to a Boston Globe report, "Without concrete signals that typically tip the scale one way or the other, there will most likely be a day or two of good soaking storms with substantial rainfall, ultimately reaching or just above the monthly average of 4 inches."

Boston hasn't experienced an overly wet October since 2005. The last two years have had considerably less than normal precipitation. Last year, reduced precipitation could not tamp out wildfires across New England, according to the Boston Globe.

The fall foliage season is advancing faster than usual due to a combination of early cooling temperatures and persistent drought. Peak colors are forecasted in late September through the first week of October in northern New England, followed by early to mid-October in Massachusetts and mid- to late October in Rhode Island and Connecticut.

The chances of snow in October are low, as Boston typically sees its first significant snow in December. However, there have been some exceptions in recent years. According to the Boston Globe, on Oct. 30, 2020, a cold-core storm delivered snowfall to the city. The earliest date Boston saw an inch or more of snow was on Oct. 29, 2005.